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Expectancy

Pronunciation: ex-PEK-tun-see

The average result you can expect per trade over many trades.

Definition

Expectancy is what an average trade earns or loses, taking both win rate and the size of wins and losses into account. A positive expectancy means that, over a large number of trades, the approach tends to make money; negative means it tends to lose. It is a more complete picture than win rate alone.

Example

If your average trade nets +0.3R after many trades, your expectancy is +0.3R per trade — small per trade, but it adds up over volume.

Related terms

Where you see this in the app

Educational content only. Map.Trade does not provide financial advice or trading signals.

Why it matters

Expectancy is the average R you can expect per trade — the clearest single number for whether an edge exists.

Frequently asked questions

How is expectancy calculated?

(Win% × average win) − (Loss% × average loss), often expressed in R.

Is positive expectancy a guarantee?

No — it is an average over many trades; variance still produces losing streaks.

Expectancy — Trading Glossary · Map.Trade